GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 551, 18 July 2021

Nepal: Ending constitutional crisis, Supreme Court appoints a new Prime Minister
Sourina Bej

What happened? 
On 12 July, the Supreme Court of Nepal overturned K P Sharma Oli's decision to dissolve the House of the Representative and issued a judicial writ to appoint the Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba as the Prime Minister under Article 76(5) of the constitution. The apex court order was based on the 30 writ petitions, including one from Deuba himself and 146 parliament members, demanding the appointment of Deuba as the prime minister. Upon reinstating the legislature, the court also said the lawmakers must meet within seven days. 

What is the background? 
First, Nepal's recurring political instability. Since the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) won the 2017 election after the new constitution was promulgated in 2015, the NCP has split, the legislature has been dissolved twice, and the country has a new Prime Minister. Twenty different governments have been in power in Nepal since 2000. While the immediate cause of the current crisis is an intra-party feud but weak democratic institutions, corruption, and politics of exclusion are primary reasons for protracted political instability. Deuba's oath-taking ceremony also witnessed tension between the leaders when President Bidya Devi Bhandari refused to explicitly appoint Deuba under Article 76(5).  

Second, an end to Oli's tenure as Prime Minister. The tensions emerged after Oli refused to hand over power to his NCP's coalition leader 'Prachanda' after half his term leading to splits and weakening of Oli's power in the legislature. On 20 December 2020, Oli dissolved the House and called for snap polls to secure his prime ministerial position amid pressure from his coalition partners to resign. The office of the President played second fiddle, and as the opposition failed to lay claim to the government, Oli was reinstated as the Prime Minister despite losing his trust vote on 10 May 2021. Subsequently, Oli dissolved the parliament again and announced an election to stymie existing calls for his resignation and weave new political alliances. 

Third, proactive Judiciary. From one dissolution to another, the Supreme Court has validated the lawmakers' writ petitions and reinstated the House. The bench has become the vanguard of the constitution in actively criticizing the legislative power struggle and the President's inactions to the effect that it has directed and upheld a new leadership this time. Furthermore, on 7 March, the Supreme Court has also invalidated the NCP in a separate hearing which subsequently brought the fractures within the coalition partners: CPN(UML) headed by Oli, and CPN (Maoist Centre) headed by 'Prachanda' to the fore.   

Fourth, emergence of regional parties as important players. The dissolution has paved the way for Terai regional parties to play an active role in the new political alliance formation. On 23 May, the Mahantha Thakur-Rajendra Mahato faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party had already been in talks with Oli for a potential power-sharing deal. With Deuba in power, an opportunity arises when the support of the Terai political parties will be crucial for the floor test. This has also brought the Terai demands for constitutional amendment and release of jailed comrades at par for dialogue with parties in the Valley, more so that President passed the Nepal Citizenship (First Amendment) Ordinance on 23 May 2021. 

What does it mean? 
The constitutional crises end, but political uncertainties continue with challenges before Deuba. He will have to prove in a vote that he has the support of more than half the House members to continue in office. The Nepali Congress currently holds only 63 seats out of 275 and would need to put together an alliance with the Maoist faction of CPN and in all likelihood with the Upendra Yadav-led faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party to reach majority. A balance between the ethnonational demands of the Terai parties and a power-sharing deal with ideologically opposite coalition partner 'Prachanda' would be something to watch for during Deuba's tenure. 

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